Falcon 9 Upper Stage Could Hit Moon, Creating 17‑Meter Crater and 3‑Ton TNT Blast

SpaceX launched a Falcon 9 in January 2025 carrying two lunar lander modules, after which the upper stage failed to re‑enter Earth's atmosphere and became space debris. Analyst Bill Gray has tracked the object and predicts it will collide with the Moon in August, creating a crater about 17 metres wide.

The impact energy is estimated to be equivalent to roughly three tonnes of TNT. The debris originates from the Falcon 9 stage that delivered the Blue Ghost and Hakuto‑R landers.